- Norway has signed a mutual defence agreement with France yesterday (28 May)
- In doing so, the Nordic nation is pursuing a “hedging strategy”
- This will secure the country under the nuclear umbrellas of France and the United States
In Paris, Norway signed a mutual defence agreement with France, which the Nordic nation has described as a “hedging strategy.”
The bilateral move is intended to add an extra layer of security under a French nuclear umbrella. This corresponds with the United States’ strategic-level security architecture in Europe, which was set up at the end of the Second World War.
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While America has not changed its nuclear guarantee to Europe, Oslo’s decision to diversify its security in this way marks the diminishing trust in American commitments to Europe. The superpower, under the capricious President Donald Trump, is pursuing foreign policy goals in which Europe is consistently in its periphery.
Eroding trust
While it is fair to contend that the US was always planning to pivot away from Europe for the Indo-Pacific, where its own strategic interests lie in checking a militarily aggressive China, the Trump administration has routinely admonished Europe in the defence and security space. The US has even threatened military action against Nato partner Denmark, contesting the Kingdom’s enduring control over Greenland.
More recently, the US was slow to commit thousands of rotational troops to a Polish military exercise earlier this month. Although the US eventually acquiesced to Polish demands, the US Government are still committed to withdrawing a full Brigade Combat Team from the continent – a unit that typically comprises at least 4,000 troops.
While the US is actively drawing down its conventional defence posture in Europe, this cannot be said about its nuclear assurance.
On 11 May, the US Navy issued an unusual update revealing the location of one of its Ohio-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, which was stopping over in Gibraltar.
This visit would have likely been noted by adversaries, particularly Russia, whose armed forces are always prodding the foundations of the Nato military alliance on its border, from deploying fighter jets over Estonia to launching drones across Western Europe.
But the presence of a US strategic asset on the edge of the continent nevertheless reinforces the country’s strategic support to European security in the modern era.
France’s offer
Earlier this month, the French President Emmanuel Macron reconceived the republic’s deterrence strategy, pursuing a “forward deterrence” within the depth of the European continent.
Among other measures, this will see France’s strategic air forces spread beyond its national borders deep into the European continent. This dispersal, Macron declared, is intended to complicate enemy calculations.
Currently, America is estimated to station around 100 tactical nuclear weapons across six facilities in Europe. These consist entirely of B61 thermonuclear gravity bombs.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, backed by Russian nuclear sabre-rattling, has forced European states to rethink whether their defence postures are sufficient to deter and defend against possible future Russian aggression – including nuclear strikes – against their own territories.
This is amply reinforced by Russia’s use of Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missiles against Ukraine, featured in hybrid strikes as recent as last week. These weapons contained a cluster of conventional warheads yet the use of the vessel, which can be used to carry nuclear warheads, has a strong psychological impact on Ukraine and its allies in the knowledge that such a missile can reach its target despite modern Western air defence systems.
